Economic confidence snaps into focus

Middle market leaders report strongest optimism levels since 2019, as recession concerns fade and growth outlooks improve.

Nearly two-thirds of middle market executives express optimism about the national economy heading into 2025, marking an extraordinary shift in business sentiment. Our annual Business Leaders Outlook survey captures varying levels of confidence across different spheres—while only 29% of respondents are optimistic about global conditions, leaders show strong confidence in closer-to-home metrics: 59% express optimism about their regional economies, 60% about their industry performance, and 75% about their own companies in 2025.

This confidence is translating to improved growth outlooks. Almost three-quarters (74%) of leaders expect revenues to increase in the coming year, while 65% project higher profits. About half (51%) plan to expand their workforce, even as 77% of businesses report rising costs.

Roughly 53% plan to introduce new products or services, 43% are planning strategic partnerships or investments, and one-third (34%) plan to expand into new domestic markets.

With 71% seeing no recession on the horizon, the focus has shifted from caution to growth.

Economic Outlook and Expectations

Business leaders’ recession expectations have fallen significantly since our 2024 survey. Only 14% of respondents anticipate a recession or believe we’re already in one—a sharp decrease from 40% at the start of 2024. The majority (71%) do not expect a recession in 2025. 

The shift in sentiment comes after the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts in late 2024—its first since 2020—and signals from the Federal Open Market Committee about further easing. Our survey data suggests business leaders are moving past recession worries and focusing instead on growth opportunities.